Connection Risk: How to Tell if Your Itinerary Is Too Tight

Not all 45-minute connections are equal. Here’s how buffers, hubs, and upstream risk affect your odds—and how itinerary analysis helps.

Know your true buffer

Published minimums aren’t guarantees. Airport layout, gate distance, and TSA/immigration can stretch “legal” into “risky.”

Hub complexity & banked waves

Peaky arrival banks compress turn times. A 40-minute connect at a quiet hour may beat 60 minutes at a peak bank.

Upstream dependencies

Your inbound’s inbound matters. If the aircraft chain is tight, minor delays propagate—and your connection pays the price.

What itinerary-aware alerts do

• Consolidate multiple legs into a single forecast.
• Highlight short buffers and peak-hour exposure.
• Remind you early enough to re-route or re-seat if needed.

Create an itinerary and check your risk

Related: Top causes of last-minute delays · Forecasting vs tracking